Nahum On the Web

There is a lot of negative stuff floating around about the Democrats, particularly in the media. So I decided to write about them as well, but to exclude the forecasts of electoral death that many others have foretold. There are too many variables in the Senate to be able to predict with any accuracy events which may occur three years into the future.

The Democrats and Greens tend to attract up to 15 percent of votes across the country between them. The Democrats tend to do better with disaffected Liberal voters and the Greens tend to do better with disaffected ALP voters. When both major parties are doing well, (as is the case now) then both revert to their core (social justice) vote.

At the margins, there are core voters and in the middle, there are some swinging voters. Of these, some of the voters who voted for Stott Despoja after seing one of her numerous appearances on Good News Week are now voting for the Greens after seeing Bob Brown and Kerry Nettle take a protest to President Bush in his recent visit. I would argue that for the most part, many of the swinging social justice vote comes from those with a mild interest in politics, who are motivated by rhetoric and perception rather than reality.

I'll continue to paint with a fairly broad brush. Journalists and the Australian public have something in common. They are not a bad bunch, but they tend to be easily entertained by new or seemingly shiny things. However, after time, the shine wears off, particularly when these things turn out to be as complicated as
the performance/policies/principles of a political party. Negative stories tend not to help very much either, (GST, Lees, Leadership, Bartlett) but I doubt the voters will be any more forgiving of the Greens when some of their policies don't wash.

The Democrats have been new, shiny and often even sexy over the years. They have had their share of high profile female leaders for whom Australians had great respect and affection. And on the whole, the Democrats have served the Australian people well. It seems that the Greens are the new and shiny political party
despite the fact that we know very little of how they would perform if given the balance of power. Their defining moments are moments of protest by Brown on environmental issues, and against the war alongside the Democrats. I can see Australians getting sick of continual protest without consistent political action.

The Democrats have had the balance of power for 22 years, and I would argue that no other party has maintained their principles and integrity over that time as have the Democrats. Harradine commands respect for similar reasons. Both Liberal and Labor have let Autralians down, yet the Democrats have held firm to protect Australian workers, women, the aged, refugees, homosexuals, those with disabilities, the environment and young people. The Democrats have forged the way for women in politics.

Yet whilst some Australians feel reluctant to vote for Latham based on his lack of experience or doubts as to whether he can satisfactorily fulfil their expectations, scores of voters will vote for a party in the Greens which has as much experience as
Pauline Hanson in Australian Politics. They are an unknown and yet as many as 6 will be given the privelage of sitting in the Senate for the next six years. Does this demonstrate the lack of understanding of the power in the Senate by the Australian
electorate?

The next few years may well bring the Senate back into the public understanding of politics as when the Fraser government blocked supply in 1975.

The Greens will undoubtedly face a real challenge in the near future. If they are too idealistic, they may alienate mainstream/fashionable voters by being too radical and obstructionalist. Alternatively, they may alienate many of their supporters by being too pragmatic. They may even have leadership problems due to their past problems with the West Australian Greens, and the fact that they have no process by which their leader is determined.

If Labor wins government, (which I think is unlikely due to Howard's fear campaign) then they will spill the Senate in 2007 to break down Liberal control. If the Greens have experienced ructions during the next three years, it may favour the Democrats.
If the Coalition wins, then the next government will be Labor and the Senate will be spilled in 2010. A double dissolution at either election stands to reshape the Senate according to the popularity of the parties which remain at the time.

So in the face of all the possibilities in the Senate, I'm uncertain that the Democrats can be assured of the death some describe. It is unlikely that the Democrats will win many seats in this election but it's far too early to begin making broad predictions about the future of social justice politics in Australia. There are just too many variables.