Nahum On the Web

John Howard may be about to call an election tomorrow, and then again, he may not. In any case, do we really care? Regardless, today is the last day for any tips to be received in election tipping competitions, and I have to put pen to paper to make a prediction.

At the very least, Howard must call the election before his fellow American goes to the poll, which is November. He must also avoid calling an election too close to GWB's election date, 2 November 2001, to avoid being caught up in the Prez's bad Iraq PR. Others on various blog sites are saying that Howard will wait for any surprises that GWB might have up his sleeve, like a little bin laden with gifts to hand out.

So Howard must call the election in early October, or August. Calling the election tomorrow will ensure that the August 7 date may capitalize on the waning Latham polling, and avoid being confused by any Grand Final fever. Crikey.com.au is also pointing towards August 7 because the RBA may be pushing rates upwards if demand for houses continues to increase. Personally, I think demand has plateaued in the housing market, and the likelihood of an RBA rates movement is unlikely in the next six months, as the risk of a unwanted slowdown being triggered are reasonable. Monetary policy is a blunt instrument at the best of times.

August 7 is the second Bledisloe Cup night, so some are banking on the Old Man's Sydneycentrism to save us from an early poll. I don't think this is enough. I think he has made his mind up. Speculation of an election is at fever pitch, and even thought the Old Man knows the electorate doesn't like early or fickle elections, this one doesn't fit into either category.

Will an early election catch Lathamites out? I don't think so. The ALP has printed its HTV cards, and they will be ready when John W. makes his move. If they are serious about winning government, they have to be ready for anything. The ALP have a bagful of policies, including the much talked about tax policy, and as soon as Johnny pulls the trigger, Latham will be launching a counterattack with his ministers letting go of the ballast of policies. Latham will be hoping for a bounce out of the policy ballast, and Howard knows this. Against an August poll is the likelihood of this policy-release polling boost.

On the case for the October poll, Latham is losing the publicity wars, and he's copping a bit of flack at long last. The Libs have been serving up the mud thick and fast ever since he gave Crean the hip and shoulder, and finally the media are starting to get hold of some grubby facts. It's a shame that personal muck makes such a big splash when blatant public dishonesty barely rates a raised eyebrow. Spying on a polly making a chip butty sandwich is so much more enlightening and meaningful than investigating any public dereliction by a lazy defence minister. Finding the dirty facts from a polly's personal life - now that's some journalism with integrity! (but it's what we have come to expect from the lightweights at Channel Nine.)

I think that Howard is enjoying watching his ministers roast Latham on Fat Kids, Centenary House, and the Iraq withdrawal, so combined with his conservatism, Howard may hold on to get a few more hits in on Latham before hurting him on the scoreboard in October.

However, the policy-passing frenzy, combined with the mass of political advertising and Moneybags Costello's family budget, combined with some Howard opportunism on the advent of Latham muck will lead to an early poll.

Here's my tip: The Old Man will squeeze back into Kirribilli House in a tight one in August. To add insult to injury, he could lease The Lodge to Latham at Centenary House rates. At least then it will be used.